Real Estate Market 2008 in Northern Virginia
Happy New Year everyone! Where may real estate be going in 2008?
I thought the article below by Chuck Haggee of the Gazette was worthwhile to read. I am not endorsing the article or its views, I found it interesting and informative.
Let me add some of the statistics I have compiled from MRIS for Prince William County.
* During the month of November 2007, 388 home sold in Prince William County. *There were 426 homes under contract in November 2007
* There were 5,963 homes listed for sale in November 2007.
* The average “Days on Market” for a home to sell is 136 days in Prince William County.
* My listings normally sell in roughly half the time.
My trade secrets to getting homes sold faster include marketing, pricing strategies and proper home presentation during the listing.
2008 Real Estate Improvement Forecast
Beltway determining factor in plus or minus market
By Chuck Hagee, Gazette
January 9, 2008
True to the old real estate axiom, "Location, Location, Location," Northern Virginia's housing market in 2007 was very much of a mixed bag. And, it is predicted to stay that wy through the first quarter, and possibly the first half, of 2008.Those were some of the conclusions reached at the 2007 Northern Virginia Realtors Association (NVAR) year-end press conference at the National Press Club early last month. Speakers from realtor associations throughout the Washington Metropolitan Region agreed "2007 was a year of continued market correction" but "strong local fundamentals" kept metro-DC ahead of the national curve."We lost our competitive edge. It's almost like we needed to have a housing market adjustment, (otherwise) we wouldn't have been able to get anyone to move here," said John McClain, senior fellow and deputy director, George Mason Center for Regional Analysis.However, the latest statistics available from the Moving Industry, supplying service to household in transit, indicates that this area remains one of the most sought after in the nation. Nearly double the amount people arrived as departed in 2007, according to those statistics."Our economic fundamentals in the metro region are sound. These factors should bolster a resurgence of the housing market by the second half of 2008," McClain said.Paraphrasing the old political adage that "All politics is local," NVAR 2007 Board Chairman Luis A. Lama emphasized, "All real estate is local." He stated, "Each neighborhood has its own market dynamics" pointing to wide ranging disparities in Northern Virginia.According to the local Multiple Listing System, the 2007 average sold price for a home in Northern Virginia was only $1,998 less than in 2006 -- $538,000 as compared to $539,998. The primary change between the two years has been time on the market and existing inventory.In the first case the average home is now on the market an average of 99 days as compared to 85 days in 2006. And, where there was a very tight inventory previously there is now an estimated nine month supply, again depending on location within the overall region, and, more specifically, the Northern Virginia market, according to NVRA statistics.IN 2006 there were 22,377 total units sold for an average sale price of $539,998. In 2007 both those numbers dropped to 18,000 units selling for an average price of $538,000, representing a decline of 19.6 percent and .37 percent respectively.One very obvious characteristic that statistically stood out was that properties inside the Capital Beltway were faring better, both in price and time on the market, than those further outside the Beltway. An example cited by Lama was that "Prince William and Loudoun counties ranked highest in the region's foreclosure rates."During the summer of 2007 there were 5,800 Virginia homes in foreclosure with 4,000 of those victims of the subprime loan implosion, according to the U.S.Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD). However, "Virginia's foreclosure rate is nearly two thirds lower than the national average," according to Lama's presentation.Emphasizing his point that all real estate trends are local, Lama compared McLean with Herndon as to median sale price and days on the market for 2006 and 2007. McLean's average sale price rose from $875,000 to $950,00 while days on the market dropped from 106 in 2006 to 54 in 2007. By contrast Heardon's average home sale price dropped from $449,500 in 2006 to $387,500 in 2007 while their time on the market rose from 101 days in 2006 to 114 in 2007.Those changes represented an 18 percent increase in the average sale price in McLean coupled with a 50 percent reduction in market hang time. In Loudoun there was a 15 percent decrease in average sale price and a 13 percent increase in market hang time.Those two jurisdictions were cited as more or less representative of Northern Virginia overall using inside and outside the Beltway comparisons.The same held true for foreclosures in Northern Virginia. Alexandria City as well as Arlington and Fairfax counties posted the lowest numbers. As of November 30, Arlington County listed 27 with both Alexandria City and Fairfax County showing 34 each, according to NVAR.On the flip side Prince William, Loudoun and Stafford counties posted the highest number of foreclosures as of November 30, 2007. They came in at 167, 219, and 262 respectively, NVAR reported.Nationally, Washington, DC, was the sixth lowest large city in the nation suffering foreclosures in 2007 with only 79 compared with the Miami which registered 283.Northern Virginia also led the region in employment gains with an increase of 28.7 percent for 2007. Although this was a 1.8 percent drop from 2006, it represented an 18.2 percent lead over the closest competitor area, Maryland, which showed a 10.5 percent increase. Northern Virginia is predicted to show a 2.7 percent increase in employment for 2008, according to McClain.
Predictions for 2008:
For the economy and housing market overall in 2008, John McClain , senior fellow/deputy director of the George Mason Center for Regional Analysis made the following predictions:*Metro 2008 will be moderately better than 2007 due to the soundness of the areas economic fundamentals.*Housing sales continue to be below long-term levels, inventories continue to be above long-term levels, but those trends will begin to moderate in 2008.*Housing prices will be flat until at least Spring with a mixed story across the region -- some jurisdiction will experience increases while other will remain negative
I thought the article below by Chuck Haggee of the Gazette was worthwhile to read. I am not endorsing the article or its views, I found it interesting and informative.
Let me add some of the statistics I have compiled from MRIS for Prince William County.
* During the month of November 2007, 388 home sold in Prince William County. *There were 426 homes under contract in November 2007
* There were 5,963 homes listed for sale in November 2007.
* The average “Days on Market” for a home to sell is 136 days in Prince William County.
* My listings normally sell in roughly half the time.
My trade secrets to getting homes sold faster include marketing, pricing strategies and proper home presentation during the listing.
2008 Real Estate Improvement Forecast
Beltway determining factor in plus or minus market
By Chuck Hagee, Gazette
January 9, 2008
True to the old real estate axiom, "Location, Location, Location," Northern Virginia's housing market in 2007 was very much of a mixed bag. And, it is predicted to stay that wy through the first quarter, and possibly the first half, of 2008.Those were some of the conclusions reached at the 2007 Northern Virginia Realtors Association (NVAR) year-end press conference at the National Press Club early last month. Speakers from realtor associations throughout the Washington Metropolitan Region agreed "2007 was a year of continued market correction" but "strong local fundamentals" kept metro-DC ahead of the national curve."We lost our competitive edge. It's almost like we needed to have a housing market adjustment, (otherwise) we wouldn't have been able to get anyone to move here," said John McClain, senior fellow and deputy director, George Mason Center for Regional Analysis.However, the latest statistics available from the Moving Industry, supplying service to household in transit, indicates that this area remains one of the most sought after in the nation. Nearly double the amount people arrived as departed in 2007, according to those statistics."Our economic fundamentals in the metro region are sound. These factors should bolster a resurgence of the housing market by the second half of 2008," McClain said.Paraphrasing the old political adage that "All politics is local," NVAR 2007 Board Chairman Luis A. Lama emphasized, "All real estate is local." He stated, "Each neighborhood has its own market dynamics" pointing to wide ranging disparities in Northern Virginia.According to the local Multiple Listing System, the 2007 average sold price for a home in Northern Virginia was only $1,998 less than in 2006 -- $538,000 as compared to $539,998. The primary change between the two years has been time on the market and existing inventory.In the first case the average home is now on the market an average of 99 days as compared to 85 days in 2006. And, where there was a very tight inventory previously there is now an estimated nine month supply, again depending on location within the overall region, and, more specifically, the Northern Virginia market, according to NVRA statistics.IN 2006 there were 22,377 total units sold for an average sale price of $539,998. In 2007 both those numbers dropped to 18,000 units selling for an average price of $538,000, representing a decline of 19.6 percent and .37 percent respectively.One very obvious characteristic that statistically stood out was that properties inside the Capital Beltway were faring better, both in price and time on the market, than those further outside the Beltway. An example cited by Lama was that "Prince William and Loudoun counties ranked highest in the region's foreclosure rates."During the summer of 2007 there were 5,800 Virginia homes in foreclosure with 4,000 of those victims of the subprime loan implosion, according to the U.S.Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD). However, "Virginia's foreclosure rate is nearly two thirds lower than the national average," according to Lama's presentation.Emphasizing his point that all real estate trends are local, Lama compared McLean with Herndon as to median sale price and days on the market for 2006 and 2007. McLean's average sale price rose from $875,000 to $950,00 while days on the market dropped from 106 in 2006 to 54 in 2007. By contrast Heardon's average home sale price dropped from $449,500 in 2006 to $387,500 in 2007 while their time on the market rose from 101 days in 2006 to 114 in 2007.Those changes represented an 18 percent increase in the average sale price in McLean coupled with a 50 percent reduction in market hang time. In Loudoun there was a 15 percent decrease in average sale price and a 13 percent increase in market hang time.Those two jurisdictions were cited as more or less representative of Northern Virginia overall using inside and outside the Beltway comparisons.The same held true for foreclosures in Northern Virginia. Alexandria City as well as Arlington and Fairfax counties posted the lowest numbers. As of November 30, Arlington County listed 27 with both Alexandria City and Fairfax County showing 34 each, according to NVAR.On the flip side Prince William, Loudoun and Stafford counties posted the highest number of foreclosures as of November 30, 2007. They came in at 167, 219, and 262 respectively, NVAR reported.Nationally, Washington, DC, was the sixth lowest large city in the nation suffering foreclosures in 2007 with only 79 compared with the Miami which registered 283.Northern Virginia also led the region in employment gains with an increase of 28.7 percent for 2007. Although this was a 1.8 percent drop from 2006, it represented an 18.2 percent lead over the closest competitor area, Maryland, which showed a 10.5 percent increase. Northern Virginia is predicted to show a 2.7 percent increase in employment for 2008, according to McClain.
Predictions for 2008:
For the economy and housing market overall in 2008, John McClain , senior fellow/deputy director of the George Mason Center for Regional Analysis made the following predictions:*Metro 2008 will be moderately better than 2007 due to the soundness of the areas economic fundamentals.*Housing sales continue to be below long-term levels, inventories continue to be above long-term levels, but those trends will begin to moderate in 2008.*Housing prices will be flat until at least Spring with a mixed story across the region -- some jurisdiction will experience increases while other will remain negative
posted by kristinburns at 9:20 AM
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